feature: nicola-t’s Oscar Awards predictions 2012

February 26, 2012   //    1 Comment

If you’re looking for an Oscar prediction ballot form for 2013, I have one right over here – 2013 Oscar Ballot Form.

With the Oscars 2012 only hours away I thought… uh oh. I still haven’t done my predictions post. It’s this damn Jameson Dublin International Film Festival, I haven’t had a chance to do anything else! Ah no, I’ve really had a great time and a great experience with the festival this year and long may it continue.

The festival is by the by though… Given that I did so badly with my BAFTA predictions the other week I thought maybe I shouldn’t bother with the Oscars. But no, I thought, I gotta put my opinion out there. If only so you can laugh at how wrong I am. For the record, I only got 8 out my 14 predictions right last year, down from 10 out of 14 for 2010… I’m definitely slipping. Also, I’m expanding the number of categories I’m predicting to 18 this year… so even more for me to get wrong.

As usual, I’ll be predicting who I think will win rather than who I think should win. Mostly. By the way, if you want to play along you can head over to my earlier post to download a handy Oscar predictions ballot form in PDF or Word doc format.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

As much as I didn’t enjoy Drive, I know a lot of people did. I suspect that since this is the only category it’s nominated in, it has a chance. That said, I don’t know anything about how these categories are awarded and I find that they usually go to what I would consider the loudest film. So, Transformers: Dark of the Moon it is.

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

What I said above still applies, however… I’m going to give this to The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, just to mix it up. I’ll probably have them right but reversed or something. To be honest, I think I have a vague idea what I think these categories are awarded for… I just don’t know if I’m right. Can anyone tell me?

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Surprisingly, this is a tough category this year. Fair play to whoever gets it. I think the winner has to be Rise of the Planet of the Apes though, for their excellent mocap work.

BEST FILM EDITING
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball

Could this be the first of the categories that The Artist will (I believe) undeservedly win? Probably. My choice here would be Hugo. Hugo was a fantastic film that I believe it deserved far more buzz and kudos than it got. Actually, you know what? I’m going to say Hugo.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets by Bret McKenzie
“Real in Rio” from Rio by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown

Bizarrely, there are only two best song nominees this year… so if I get this wrong then I guess… I’m just really unlucky? In any case, if you read my review of The Muppets you’ll know how much I loved it. So I have to say, the winner for me is “Man or Muppet”

BEST MAKE-UP
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2
The Iron Lady

Hmm… hmm… I’d like to see Harry Potter win an Oscar. And while the make-up in The Iron Lady was good, it was just her… There was far more to do on Harry Potter. Mind you, Albert Nobbs looks pretty good too. I’d love to say Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2. Simply because I think the films deserve some kind of recognition of their achievement. In my mind it’s kinda shocking it’s not up for Best Picture, not that I think it should win, but to not even recognise the work that went into those films seems very harsh. I suspect though that The Iron Lady will take it home.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

It usually goes to the period drama doesn’t it? I missed Jane Eyre but looking at the stills on IMDb, the costumes look quite beautiful. I’ve seen all the others and I would have said Anonymous was the best of those… I think I will go for Anonymous, they were some stunning costumes – especially the Queen’s gowns, beautiful work.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Well, this is one that The Artist definitely does deserve to win.

BEST ART DIRECTION
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Art Direction is another one of those awards that I think people aren’t sure about. What is Art Direction? In my mind this is how you present and arrange the things you take the photos of, as opposed to cinematography which is how you take the photos of the things you’ve presented and arranged. Correct me if I’m wrong.

In any case, I’m calling this for Hugo. Mainly because I think that Hugo is going to find itself out in the cold in favour of The Artist and this is one that it deserves. The detail in the look and feel of Hugo should not be denied recognition!

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

I managed to miss The Tree of Life and I feel very left out because of it. But that’s not entirely relevant here… I’m sure you realise that the main question for these Oscars is, will The Artist win everything? Well, I don’t think it will win Cinematography. Going back over the winners of the last few years, it’s not usually the best picture faves that pick up the awards, it’s films with good cinematography.

While I didn’t seen Tree of Life I have seen quite a few of Emmanuel Lubezki’s other films and yes, he’s a great cinematographer. He’s been nominated 4 times in the past and I think this will be his year.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

I was delighted to see Margin Call nominated here, it’s a fantastic screenplay and the fact that such a small film made it to the Oscars is heartening. Unfortunately I’m pretty sure it’s going to get flattened by the steamroller. The Artist it is.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

I’d love to see Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy pick up something, but I’m fairly certain The Descendants is going to be due some pity awards. Plus, lots of people didn’t like Tinker Tailor, undoubtedly that’s reflected in The Academy as well. The Descendants it is.

And now we come to the biggies…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo – The Artist
Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life
Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer – The Help

If Bérénice Bejo wins this I’m going to be really annoyed. Now I know I don’t love The Artist as much as the next girl but this chick did nothing in that film. I presume she won’t though. Octavia Spencer is the favourite for this one and I’m pretty sure she will get it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill – Moneyball
Nick Nolte – Warrior
Christopher Plummer – Beginners
Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

What’s Jonah Hill doing in this category? Seriously? This is a joke right? I don’t mean because of his film pedigree, it’s not like you can’t win an Oscar because you made The Sitter, it’s just that he’s another nominee who had nothing to do in the film. Anyone could have played his role (same as Bejo) and it wouldn’t have made a blind bit of difference to the film. But I disgress, as usual.

I believe the winner here will be Christopher Plummer.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis – The Help
Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn

It’s gotta be Meryl Streep doesn’t it? It’s been almost 30 years since she’s won an Oscar.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Damián Bichir – A Better Life
George Clooney – The Descendants
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt – Moneyball

Gary Oldman should win this. I’d even be ok with George Clooney winning. Up until about three weeks ago I was sure he would. Sadly however, momentum is propelling The Artist skywards. Jean Dujardin is likely to take the little golden man home tonight.

BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
Alexander Payne – The Descendents
Martin Scorsese – Hugo
Terrence Malik – The Tree of Life

I’d love to see Martin Scorsese pick this up. But he won’t, because Michel Hazanavicius is going to, simply because his film has the most buzz. Just like Tom Hooper in 2011. The only way it won’t be Hazanavicius will be if people decide to split their vote and go The Artist for pic and Hugo for director. I don’t think that’s likely at all.

BEST FILM
War Horse
The Artist
Moneyball
The Descendants
The Tree of Life
Midnight in Paris
The Help
Hugo
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Can’t see anyone getting in The Artist‘s way. Again though, I’d give it to Hugo.

So that’s that!

I’ll try not to get to annoyed tonight when The Artist strolls home with everything. For the record, I actually did like The Artist, you can read my review here. I just think there are better films in the categories…