feature: Nicola’s Oscar Predictions 2014

March 1, 2014   //    1 Comment

The day before the Oscars is fine for doing Oscar predictions right? It’s not too late is it? (weirdly enough right when I was writing “too late” someone on the TV said “too late”… is that some kind of a sign?) Anyway. I say it’s not, so it’s not.

I always give you a little rundown of how well I’ve got on with predictions… In 2010 I got 10 out of 14 (71%), 2011 I got 8 out of 14 (57%), 2012 I got 11 out of 18 (61%) and last year… I got 13 out of 19 (68%). Last year I did really well on the technical categories but not so fantastic on the majors. Who’d thunk Ang Li would get Best Director…??

This year, I’ve decided to do predictions in 21 categories. I know what you’re thinking. Why do you keep changing the number of categories you predict? To be honest, I just predict for the number of categories that I feel informed about. In the past I’ve left out some of the technical categories or documentary and foreign language because I’ve felt like I haven’t seen enough of the nominees but this year I’ve included everything but the short form because I’ve seen a lot of the contenders. That’s all.

Need a ballot form to do your own predictions? Here’s a handy one for you right now. Here.

Anyway. Here goes nuthin’

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness

It’s Gravity right? Yeah? Gravity?

Predicted winner: Gravity

BEST SOUND MIXING

Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor

Hmm… I’d love Captain Phillips to get something. I feel like maybe voices, water, enclosed spaces… this sounds like it’d be a tough job for sound mixing? Right?

Predicted winner: Captain Phillips

BEST SOUND EDITING

All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor

Another one for Gravity methinks… Lots of sounds effects in it.

Predicted winner: Gravity

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Happy” from Despicable Me 2
Music and Lyric by Pharrell Williams

“Let It Go” from Frozen
Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez

“The Moon Song” from Her
Music by Karen O; Lyric by Karen O and Spike Jonze

“Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen; Lyric by Paul Hewson

I feel like U2 have got this one in the bag.

Predicted winner: “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

BEST SCORE

The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks

I have to be honest, I’m not great on scores. I don’t usually notice them. So… I’m going for Gravity.

Predicted winner: Gravity

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave

As I mentioned this year, but in case you missed it, this category replaced the old Best Art Direction category last year.

I think there’s a chance here for both 12 Years a Slave and Gravity because I get the impression that when a voter outside of the technical guilds likes a film, they vote for it in all the categories they can. So… given that the Art Directors Guild did give Gravity an award as well… that’s the one I’ll go for.

Predicted winner: Gravity

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years a Slave

I’d have gone for The Great Gatsby but the Costume Designers Guild gave it to 12 Years a Slave over Gatsby, so who am I go to against them?

Predicted winner: 12 Years a Slave

BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP

Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

I heard that Dallas Buyers Club had a make-up budget of just $250 for the whole production. Incredible. So. You know.

Predicted winner: Dallas Buyers Club

BEST FILM EDITING

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave

I see technical awards for Gravity…

Predicted winner: Gravity

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Grandmaster – Philippe Le Sourd
Gravity – Emmanuel Lubezki
Inside Llewyn Davis – Bruno Delbonnel
Nebraska – Phedon Papamichael
Prisoners – Roger A. Deakins

Roger Deakins is owed so many Oscars at this stage it’s not funny. Alas, I fear this year will not be his year either. Another one for Gravity

Predicted winner: Gravity

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Broken Circle Breakdown – Belgium
The Great Beauty – Italy
The Hunt – Denmark
The Missing Picture – Cambodia
Omar – Palestine

The Broken Circle Breakdown was incredible, but it was just so unbelievably sad I don’t think that it’ll win anything. I know I can’t recommend anyone see it. So, I reckon it’s between The Great Beauty and The Hunt… and since I feel like The Great Beauty has wider appeal, that’s what I’m going for.

Predicted winner: The Great Beauty

BEST DOCUMENTARY

The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom

I’ve only seen 2 of these so this is a stab in the dark for me. The ones I’ve seen are The Square and 20 Feet from Stardom and as great as 20 Feet, I heard so much about how striking The Act of Killing was, I’ll pick that.

Predicted winner: The Act of Killing

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Croods – Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco and Kristine Belson
Despicable Me 2 – Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin and Chris Meledandri
Ernest & Celestine – Benjamin Renner and Didier Brunner
Frozen – Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee and Peter Del Vecho
The Wind Rises – Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki

I would absolutely LOVE The Croods to get an Oscar but I think Disney has this one covered.

Predicted winner: Frozen

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

All great screenplays but The Wolf of Wall Street pips it for me. But I’m not in the Academy so…

Predicted winner: 12 Years a Slave

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska

I’ll be pissed off if American Hustle gets this, for reasons I’ll elaborate on in the Best Director category. With that out of the way this feels likes this is a pretty open category. I’m going to put my finger in the air and say…

Predicted winner: Her

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts in August: Osage County
June Squibb in Nebraska

I don’t think JLaw deserves it, I’d much rather see Sally Hawkins get it and there’s been a swell of support for Lupita Nyong’o recently but… everyone seems to love her so…

Predicted winner: Jennifer Lawrence

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper in American Hustle
Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club

Jonah Hill. A two-time Oscar nominee. Who’d thunk it. Though, it’s largely irrelevant since Jared Leto’s going to win this right? I did think he was fantastic. Unrecognisable. And he provided a emotional impact in a film that was largely narrative when you think about it. Well, it was for me anyway.

Predicted winner: Jared Leto

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams in American Hustle
Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock in Gravity
Judi Dench in Philomena
Meryl Streep in August: Osage County

Hmm… I know we love Gravity and Sandra Bullock but her Oscar wasn’t that long ago and Blanchett’s was a much more… obvious performance. So. Blanchett is it.

Predicted winner: Cate Blanchett

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale in American Hustle
Bruce Dern in Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club

Loved Leo DiCaprio. Think he deserves an Oscar. Loved Chiwetel Ejiofor. Incredible film, great performance. Also Oscar-worthy. Christian Bale, always solid. Bruce Dern, I unfortunately missed, but I heard he was great and with his age he has to reckoned with. For me though, Matthew McConaughey’s star is in ascendence… and it might be a round about way for fans of The Wolf of Wall Street to get a word in too.

Predicted winner: Matthew McConaughey

Best Director

American Hustle – David O. Russell
Gravity – Alfonso Cuarón
Nebraska – Alexander Payne
12 Years a Slave – Steve McQueen
The Wolf of Wall Street – Martin Scorsese

I don’t want to go so far as to say I don’t like David O. Russell’s films… But I honestly don’t understand how they keep getting nominated for Oscars. Ok, The Fighter was elevated by some incredible performances but seriously, they’re very pedestrian, safe, normal dramas. They’re by the numbers. I don’t understand how they stand out enough to get nominated. Just wanted to have my little rant there. Deal with the Devil. That’s all I’m saying.

But anyway, Best Director. Since I don’t think Gravity is going to go all the way when it comes to Best Picture… and because I think it has a huge level of support in the Academy, I’m calling this for Cuarón. Besides, I’ve been telling people to watch Children of Men for the last 8 years (one of my top 10 films of the last decade dontcherknow).

That said, amazing work by Steve McQueen. What a film.

Predicted winner: Alfonso Cuarón

BEST PICTURE

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Great selection this year. I’d be happy to see at least 4 of them win to be honest. But of course, there can only be one winner and there are two films with all the buzz behind them this year. Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. I feel like 12 Years a Slave has been losing momentum in recent weeks but I do genuinely think it’s the best film on the slate. So… I’m going for it.

Predicted winner: 12 Years a Slave

So even though I absolutely loved 12 Years a Slave, far more than Gravity – and this is a sci-fi junkie talking – I don’t see it picking up as many awards. I’ve got Gravity on 7 and 12 Years a Slave on 3…

… Let’s see how I do!

The 86th Academy Awards are on Sunday 2nd March at 8:30pm ET (1.30am GMT) however coverage on many of the live broadcasters starts as early as 7pm ET (11.30pm GMT on Sky Movies)