feature: Nicola’s Oscar Predictions 2018
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Between the snow and the fact that the Audi Dublin International Film Festival is still ongoing, I am again late with my predictions… Oh well!
As with the last few years, I’m doing the 21 predictions again this year. I had thought I’d hit a ceiling of 71% correct. Then I dropped down to 66% last year. I had given La La Land too much credit apparently. I’m not making that mistake twice, so I really hope the Academy doesn’t decide to give everything to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri!
2010 – 10 out of 14 (71%)
2011 – 8 out of 14 (57%)
2012 – 11 out of 18 (61%)
2013 – 13 out of 19 (68%)
2014 – 15 out of 21 (71%)
2015 – 15 out of 21 (71%)
2016 – 15 out of 21 (71%)
2017 – 14 out of 21 (66%)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Oh no! All of these films have great effects. Hmm…
Predicted winner: War for the Planet of the Apes
BEST SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
I’m feeling Dunkirk, because it was one film where the sound actually felt like it was another character in the movie. If you know what I mean.
Predicted winner: Dunkirk
BEST SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Same as above really, especially given that we have the same nominees in both.
Predicted winner: Dunkirk
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Mighty River” from Mudbound
Music and Lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
Music and Lyrics by Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from Coco
Music and Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
Music by Diane Warren; Lyrics by Common and Diane Warren
“This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman
Music and Lyrics by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
Remember back in December when people thought The Greatest Showman was a flop, just because it only opened at $13m. Well screw you folks! Here’s hoping it will shortly become an Oscar winner!
Predicted winner: “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman
BEST SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Hmm… I want to go to the guy from Radiohead. But then again, maybe it’s Hans Zimmer’s time (again)??
Predicted winner: Phantom Thread
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
So Blade Runner 2049 looked beautiful, but I feel like that’s the cinematography rather than the production design. The Shape of Water was also beautiful and it had that whole water thing going on so…
Predicted winner: The Shape of Water
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
A lot of great costumes this year to be honest. I’d usually go for the flashiest period piece, but in this case there’s more than one of those. So I’ll go for Phantom Thread, because it was hilarious, and it was also actually about costume design.
Predicted winner: Phantom Thread
BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder
I have to admit, I didn’t actually see Victoria and Abdul or Wonder however for the sheer transformation of Gary Oldman, I think Darkest Hour has it anyway.
Predicted winner: Darkest Hour
BEST FILM EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
I don’t really know which way to go here. I feel like Dunkirk has a strong chance in all the technical categories… so… Dunkirk?
Predicted winner: Dunkirk
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049 – Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour – Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk – Hoyte van Hoytema
Mudbound – Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water – Dan Laustsen
Come on. You have to give it Roger Deakins this time. It’s ridiculous. I’ve said this before though.
Predicted winner: Blade Runner 2049
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman (Chile) in Spanish – Directed by Sebastián Lelio
The Insult (Lebanon) in Arabic – Directed by Ziad Doueiri
Loveless (Russia) in Russian – Directed by Andrey Zvyagintsev
On Body and Soul (Hungary) in Hungarian – Directed by Ildikó Enyedi
The Square (Sweden) in Swedish – Directed by Ruben Östlund
I’ve missed all of these nominees so that sucks. I’m going to say A Fantastic Woman, because I see a lot of ads for it. Not the best way to judge, but I suppose if I’m in the same position as Academy voters, it makes sense. I am a big fan of Ruben Östlund though, so I’d love to see him get it either.
Predicted winner: A Fantastic Woman
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
I haven’t see any of these either. Awks.
Predicted winner: Icarus
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
I wouldn’t bet against Pixar.
Predicted winner: Coco
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
I would love Logan to win. It was my number 2 film of last year, after the fantastic Your Name. But alas, it’s not to be.
Predicted winner: Call Me By Your Name
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I think it would be CRAZY if Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri wins. CRAZY. So I really hope it doesn’t, which makes this a difficult pick. So…
Predicted winner: Get Out
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige – Mudbound as Florence Jackson
Allison Janney – I, Tonya as LaVona Golden
Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread as Cyril Woodcock
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird as Marion McPherson
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water as Zelda Delilah Fuller
Allison Janney has this locked up right?
Predicted winner: Allison Janney
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project as Bobby Hicks
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as Chief Bill Willoughby
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water as Giles
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World as J. Paul Getty
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as Officer Jason Dixon
I like Sam Rockwell. I don’t like the character, or the movie he’s in, but I like him. Also, he’s the favourite right?
Predicted winner: Sam Rockwell
BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water as Elisa Esposito
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as Mildred Hayes
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya as Tonya Harding
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird as Christine “Lady Bird” McPherson
Meryl Streep – The Post as Katharine Graham
It’s a tough year, all of these were award winning performances. I’ve long thought Sally Hawkins should be honoured and Saoirse Ronan I think is basically the new Meryl Streep. However I have to go with the favourite. No matter how much I disliked the movie. Also, she is a great actress.
Predicted winner: Frances McDormand
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name as Elio Perlman
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread as Reynolds Woodcock
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out as Chris Washington
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour as Winston Churchill
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. as Roman J. Israel
I thought Gary Oldman was outstanding in Darkest Hour.
Predicted winner: Gary Oldman
Best Director
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
Jordan Peele – Get Out
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
The buzz this season has been around Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water and the former isn’t in this category so…
Predicted winner: Guillermo del Toro
BEST PICTURE
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I didn’t see Call Me By Your Name. My favourites were probably The Post, Lady Bird, Dunkirk and Get Out… but none of them are going to win. My least favourite was Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and that IS the favourite so… I’m going to pick that. But I still hold out a little bit of hope for The Shape of Water.
Predicted winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
That’s it. Let’s see what happens!
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