feature: Nicola's Oscar Predictions 2017

feature: Nicola’s Oscar Predictions 2017

February 26, 2017 // No Comment

Last year I was about 12 hours before, this year I’ve slipped again – it’s mere hours before the ceremony, not to mention almost a year since I’ve posted. I was thinking about not doing the post, but then I though hey, why not?

I had a pick an image for this post and this year, instead of going for the film that I think is going to win Best Picture, I decided to go for what I felt was the best scene from all the Best Picture nominees that I’ve seen. Sadly I haven’t caught Fences and Hidden Figures in time for this because of my duties on the Dublin Film Critics Circle jury for the Audi Dublin International Film Festival, but soon!

I’m doing the 21 predictions again this year. Hopefully I can improve. Last year I hit the ceiling of 71% again – maybe this year I can break it… It’s possible, right? Here’s my record for the last 6 years…

2010 – 10 out of 14 (71%)
2011 – 8 out of 14 (57%)
2012 – 11 out of 18 (61%)
2013 – 13 out of 19 (68%)
2014 – 15 out of 21 (71%)
2015 – 15 out of 21 (71%)
2016 – 15 out of 21 (71%)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Hmm… I would love to see Kubo win an award but I doubt enough people even saw it for it to pick up anything. Sad. Word on the street is that everyone was very impressed with The Jungle Book and who am I to argue.

Predicted winner: The Jungle Book

BEST SOUND MIXING

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

I’m thinking a certain film is going to sweep the sound awards. Even though I’d like to see Hacksaw Ridge pick one up… because, you know, war is cacophonous and the team did a great job.

Predicted winner: La La Land

BEST SOUND EDITING

Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

Prove me wrong Academy voters… don’t give these both to the same film…

Predicted winner: La La Land

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
Music by Justin Hurwitz, Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls
Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin, and Karl Johan Schuster (Shellback)

“City of Stars” from La La Land
Music by Justin Hurwitz, Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story
Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting

“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda

I LOVED “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana. I listened to it for weeks afterwards, I still listen to it. What a tune. In fact, I’m going to listen to it now.

Unhappily though, there’s no way the big musical is not going to win Best Original Song. The tide seems to be behind “Audition”, which personally I think is a shame – because all I could think when watching it was “This is no Cabaret and you are not Liza Minnelli”.

But hey.

Predicted winner: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land

BEST SCORE

Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

I don’t actually dislike La La Land, I just don’t think it’s worthy of the buzz and the hype it’s getting in the run up to the Oscars. That said, it does deserve this one. With my predictions record though, it’ll probably be the one category I get wrong!

Predicted winner: La La Land

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

Maybe Arrival will sneak in somewhere? Probably not.

Predicted winner: La La Land

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

If there’s anywhere I think another film will slip in, it’s here.

Predicted winner: Jackie

BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP

A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

And of course, La La Land isn’t nominated here so someone else will definitely make it in here. I’m saying it’ll be the aliens.

Predicted winner: Star Trek Beyond

BEST FILM EDITING

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

I dunno. Everyone is predicting a sweep for La La Land. I’d like to see Moonlight get a few, but it seems unlikely.

Predicted winner: La La Land

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival – Bradford Young
La La Land – Linus Sandgren
Lion – Greig Fraser
Moonlight – James Laxton
Silence – Rodrigo Prieto

No Lubezki or Deakins this year! I won’t begrudge La La Land this one. Though, Lion I feel deserves something somewhere… but not this.

Predicted winner: La La Land

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Land of Mine (Denmark) in Danish – Martin Zandvliet
A Man Called Ove (Sweden) in Swedish – Hannes Holm
The Salesman (Iran) in Persian – Asghar Farhadi
Tanna (Australia) in Nauvhal – Martin Butler and Bentley Dean
Toni Erdmann (Germany) in German – Maren Ade

I’ve seen a couple of these, had to miss Tanna in ADIFF and Toni Erdmann because of ADIFF. I quite like Land of Mine, more than I liked The Salesman but I reckon Asghar Farhadi has it anyway. It’s definitely more Oscar-y than Land of Mine.

Predicted winner: The Salesman

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

Shamefully I haven’t seen any of these, so I’ll have to defer to the other pundits here.

Predicted winner: O.J.: Made In America

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Zucchini? I think you mean Courgette. And don’t you mean Zootropolis?

I actually gave My Life as a Courgette an award today from the Dublin Film Critics Circle. Though the others weren’t eligible. Kubo was a fantastic achievement and I loved the songs in Moana but Zootopia was outstanding. Up there with Inside Out last year and should have also been nominated for Best Picture. Long may the quality of animated features stay this high.

Predicted winner: Zootopia

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

No La La Land here (because it’s in Original screenplay) so…

Predicted winner: Moonlight

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

Honestly, I really don’t think you can reward La La Land’s screenplay. Come on. There are better screenplays here.

Predicted winner: Manchester By The Sea

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

I know Michelle Williams was in Manchester By The Sea for like 5 mins, but that was just such a great scene (see the pic above). However, Viola Davis is a force of nature and, while I haven’t seen it, I gather she’s brilliant in Fences

Predicted winner: Viola Davis

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

I’ve been following Mahershala Ali career ever since he played Richard Tyler in The 4400 in 2004. He’s brilliant and hope he gets this one. He’s such a diverse actor and I always look forward to what he does next.

Mind you, I do like Michael Shannon, he’s always fun. And what’s with Dev Patel as supporting actor? If he’s not a lead in Lion, who is?

Predicted winner: Mahershalalhashbaz Ali

BEST ACTRESS

Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Ruth Negga – Loving
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

I know it’s mean, but I just don’t think Emma Stone deserves this. I’ve never seen her in anything where I’ve thought “Wow”. I mean, I don’t like Jennifer Lawrence either but she was great in “Winter’s Bone”. What has Emma Stone ever done? Ok, I know some of you are going to say, uhhh – La La Land, but I disagree. Anyway, what I think doesn’t matter so…

Predicted winner: Emma Stone

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences

Having missed Denzel Washington in Fences, I’ll have to go with Casey Affleck. I cried a river watching Manchester By The Sea and that was down to him.

Predicted winner: Casey Affleck

Best Director

Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

I’m ok with Damien Chazelle picking this up. I really liked Whiplash

Predicted winner: Damien Chazelle

BEST PICTURE

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

As much as I begrudge La La Land, there isn’t another film that I’d see as a obvious alternative. Maybe Moonlight. Lion and Manchester By The Sea were probably my favourites (Hidden Figures and Fences aside because I missed them) but that’s pure sentimentality, I am a sap.

So… hey, you may as well give it to La La Land.