feature: Nicola’s Oscar Predictions 2016
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I’ve slipped again! Last year I managed to get the predictions in 2 days before the ceremony… this year it’s only a little more than 12 hours before. Oh well. The point is that it’s before…
I’ll be doing 21 predictions again this year and if you’re wondering… I’m not really very good at this. Here’s my stats from the last few years. I seem to be topping out at 71%, and I’m not too hopeful for this year… so let’s see what happens.
2010 – 10 out of 14 (71%)
2011 – 8 out of 14 (57%)
2012 – 11 out of 18 (61%)
2013 – 13 out of 19 (68%)
2014 – 15 out of 21 (71%)
2015 – 15 out of 21 (71%)
Need a ballot form to do your own predictions? Here’s a handy one for you right now. Here.
BEST DIGITAL EFFECTS
Ex Machina
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The last few weeks has made it look like The Revenant could pull off a sweep these Oscars but I want to feel like there’s a bit of nostalgia left in Oscar voters. Plus, I kinda thought that bear looked crap.
Predicted winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
BEST SOUND MIXING
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Even though I understand the concept of sound editing and sound mixing, I fail to quite understand how they translate to the winners of recent years… I kinda feel like a got a free pass with Whiplash last year, but this year…
Predicted winner: The Revenant
BEST SOUND EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I didn’t want to believe in American Sniper last year and I was wrong so this year I thought I’d look directly to the Motion Picture Sound Editors awards, the Golden Reels, to see who they picked. It was a tie.
I already gave The Revenant my choice in sound mixing… so I’ll go with…
Predicted winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
Music and Lyric by Ahamad Balshe (Belly), Stephan Moccio, Jason “Daheala” Quenneville, Abel Tesfaye (The Weeknd)
“Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction
Music by J. Ralph, Lyric by Antony Hegarty
“Simple Song #3” from Youth
Music and Lyric by David Lang
“Til It Happen to You” from The Hunting Ground
Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and Diane Warren
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
Music and Lyric by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith
Ordinarily I’d think the Bond song would be a contender… and of course it is a contender, but I really didn’t like it. I’m feeling a lot of buzz around Lady Gaga and I like her so…
Predicted winner: “Til It Happen to You” from The Hunting Ground
BEST SCORE
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Ennio Morricone could be on to a winner here for despite the widespread snub for The Hateful Eight.
Predicted winner: The Hateful Eight
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
The Art Director’s guild saw fit to honour The Martian, The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road but if it were all decided by me, Mad Max: Fury Road would be walking away with awards tonight so…
Predicted winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Tough one this year, Cinderella has the big gowns but Carol and The Danish Girl both had excellent period dress. The costuming in Mad Max was integral and The Revenant is just the overall favourite I think. Probably its weakest category though.
Predicted winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant
I think this is one of those categories where everyone in the Academy gets to vote, so even though The Revenant had no showing in the guild awards, it could pick it up here.
But I just can’t go for that. All the awards for Mad Max: Fury Road!
Predicted winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST FILM EDITING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Out of the three faves, I’d actually like to see The Big Short pick up Best Picture, it has a bit of panache. However I think it’s pretty unlikely, so maybe it can get Best Film Editing instead.
Predicted winner: The Big Short
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Carol – Ed Lachman
The Hateful Eight – Robert Richardson
Mad Max: Fury Road – John Seale
The Revenant – Emmanuel Lubezki
Sicario – Roger Deakins
Can anyone touch Lubezki? Poor ol’ Deakins, just never gonna win. So sad.
Predicted winner: The Revenant
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Embrace of the Serpent – Spanish, Colombia
Mustang – Turkish, France
Son of Saul – Hungarian, Hungary
Theeb – Arabic, Jordan
A War – Danish, Denmark
I’ve seen 3 of these this year, so pretty good. Theeb I don’t rate. Mustang is my fave but all the talk is around Son of Saul so…
Predicted winner: Son of Saul
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
I’ve only seen Amy here but again, that’s where all the buzz is.
Predicted winner: Amy
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Inside Out!
Predicted winner: Inside Out
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
I loved Brooklyn and I wouldn’t be upset if any of these won but I’m going to go with the big gun here.
Predicted winner: The Big Short
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
The other big gun?
Predicted winner: Spotlight
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara – Carol
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
I’m very hopeful for Alicia Vikander here, she’s impressed me in everything I’ve seen her in so far and I think she has a long career ahead of her. Plus, as much as I love Kate Winslet, I didn’t think she was great in Steve Jobs. She was better in Triple 9
Predicted winner: Alicia Vikander
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale – The Big Short
Tom Hardy – The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone – Creed
I would LOVE Mark Rylance to get this. Because I genuinely think it was the best performance out of these 5…
… But it looks like it’s going to be Sylvester Stallone. Which, in a way, I’m ok with, because I really believe Creed deserved a Best Actor and a Best Picture nod as well. So if it picks up a win from its only nomination then ok.
Predicted winner: Sylvester Stallone
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Carol
Brie Larson – Room
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
Seems like Brie Larson has this in the bag.
Predicted winner: Brie Larson
BEST ACTOR
Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
Matt Damon – The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
There will be war if DiCaprio doesn’t pick this up.
Predicted winner: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Director
Adam McKay – The Big Short
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro González Iñárritu – The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson – Room
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
Tough one. Will they give Iñárritu Best Picture and Best Director 2 years in a row. I think they might.
My choice of course though, is George Miller. Come on Mad Max: Fury Road!
Predicted winner: Alejandro González Iñárritu
BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
If you’d asked me a month ago I’d have said Spotlight, and out of the 3 faves (The Big Short, Spotlight and The Revenant) I’d be choosing The Big Short, but it really feels like the tide has turned in The Revenant’s favour these last few weeks… so…
Predicted winner: The Revenant
Which is a little strange to say because I actually didn’t like The Revenant that much. It was a fantastic production but I didn’t connect with it on an emotional level. I was invested in DiCaprio’s performance for sure, but the film itself… not so much.
I would love Mad Max: Fury Road to win, and I’d be equally happy for Spotlight or The Big Short or Brooklyn for that matter…
… then again, the tales of The Revenant’s shoot and of DiCaprio’s dedication are immense, plus it is an great looking film so… who’s to say that that isn’t enough of an achievement to win Best Picture?
We’ll see tonight!
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